Are All-Cash Home Sales Good or Bad?

Data released today by the National Association of Realtors on US home sales in February showed a decline of 0.6% and inventory surged by the most for the January-February period in 20 years. But what may be more telling is that all-cash sales remain at a extraordinary percent of the total at 27%. Typically, all-cash […]

The Sure Double Dip in Housing

It’s not often we clearly see an iceberg through the windshield filled with our foggy future, but Meredith Whitney says she has seen one when she said, “The housing market surely will double dip.” When we hear such comments there are two things that we need to think about before we accept or reject what […]

Eye of the Housing Hurricane

After the first wall of the hurricane passes, there’s a lull. You’re in the eye of the hurricane. It may feel like it’s over, but it’s not. It just feels better because the wind stopped blowing for a minute. But when the second wall comes through, it could be just as bad as the first. […]

Fed Meeting Press Release Changes for November 2009

The Federal Reserve bascially kicked the can down the road with their announcement after the November 4, 2009 meeting. They only made minor changes to the language, as you can see below, and the only thing they made crystal clear is that they don’t see inflation on the horizon. FOMC meetings offer opportunity to not just […]

There’s a Reason He’s Called King

Bill Gross, a long time favorite of mine, is often called the Bond King. Well, it was reported today that he bet 60% of his $132B fund on mortgage debt from Fannie and Freddie and reaped a $1.7B payday when the government bailed out the debt of the two failed firms. His fund has out […]

Fannie and Freddie get folded into the government. It’s about time.

On August 25, 2003, I posted a comment on F&F being in trouble and that the housing bubble could burst and create a huge problem for the economy. In 2003! Why? How did I know such a thing could happen over five years ago? Because of the misalignment of incentives due to the implied government […]

Signs of the Times

In a recent survey by the AARP, they found the following startling information: 4 of 10 parents over 45 have had to help their kids with their bills 33% of retirees have had to help their kids with their bills and have stopped putting money into their retirement account. 14% have cut back on medications. […]

Gross and Greenspan’s Long Term View

Both Bill Gross, the bond king, and Alan Greenspan, the former Fed Chair, said that it’s a long road to a housing recovery and I couldn’t agree more. Gross said, the downward path of home prices “will dominate Fed policy over the next several years as will the lingering unwind of related financial structures and […]

And You Wonder Why We Have Problems

In the subprime debacle there is plenty of blame to go around, but as usual, a systemic problem must exist for the problem to become this big. There are only a few credit rating agencies, notably Moody’s and S&P, and all of them failed to sound the alarm in this situation. So what happened? Here’s […]

Is it Too Early To Get Back Into Housing?

A good friend of mine passed me at the turn today and said he just bought a condo in Las Vegas. To his credit he doesn’t feel that he got in at the very bottom, but the deal look good, so he went for it. What’s a few percent when you can get a view […]

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